Social networking...the future or a waste of time?

You can't read, view or listen to any news media channel (Web mostly of course because mainstream old news media pretty much discounts Web 2.0 and vice versa...just like viewers ignore Katie Couric ... but I digress) without seeing articles/blogs relating to social networking, VC "overheated fundings", communities of millions run by kids at Starbucks, and "how many people follow me on Twitter when I say I am going to bathroom." Seriously, this happens.

Which got me to thinking...is Web 2.0 useful or a waste of time? As usual in life, the answer is somewhere in between. A couple points to consider:

1. Social networks are still relatively new. The "excess inflection point" hasn't been reached yet.

2. The phoenomenan will probably mirror the bubble companies in the late 90s...look for 2-3 "Amazon's" to grow, excess bubble and valuations to the moon, then a 95% valuations/stock price crash and no new venture fundings. Then, the companies with brand and a business model will re-emerge and make billions (look at the Amazon 10 year stock chart, it's amazing).


3. The key is that social communities haven't REALLY figured out how to make money. Period. Great article in Boston Globe the other day (checking on my Red Sox who got swept by Devil Rays...but I digress) on this topic. Conferences like the So Cal Digital Tech Forum are starting to form to talk business; not just "techie" hype.

4. Most people over 30 with family and jobs and kids and sick parents and (on and on and on) will NEVER have the time to spend on social communities en mass; they will find 1-2 they like and stick to it. I wonder if there is an inverse correlation between "having a life" and number of hours on social networks... but I digress.

In summary, we all should "plug in" but the business impact of social networking is still in its infancy. In the coming months/year it will - and should - be monitored by the business community.

Thoughts?